Belarusian propaganda and nuclear rhetoric: manipulation and threats

Factcheck

On March 1, 2025, TV commentator Grigory Azaryonok made several statements on the STV channel program LETUCHKA.
Our verdict based on the analyses conducted:

Verdict: Incorrect


Reasons:

  • The thesis or statement is completely false: information from multiple sources or opinions of several experts in the specific field contradict it.
  • The stated cause-and-effect relationships and connections clearly do not exist as claimed.
  • The event occurred in substantially different aspects than stated.


Fact-checking rating scale

Now let’s analyze the disinformation narratives and semantic analysis of two videos.
First, the video that gathered just over 20 thousand views:

Europe is a cow. First it was a dairy cow, the Americans milked it, now it’s a cow being led to slaughter, it will be killed, the carcass will be butchered. So, Europe will never again be a geopolitical center, specifically Western Europe, that’s it, they have squandered their politics and sovereignty, despite the fact that France and England have nuclear weapons and everything else, that’s it, Europe is already a third world, there will be the USA, Russia, China, we are in alliance with Russia,

Full video:

Analysis of disinformation narratives:

Narrative Analysis
Risk level: high
manipulation

Using the metaphor ‘Europe is a cow’ to create a negative image of Europe and present it as a victim, which distorts the real state of affairs.

selective quotation
creating false dichotomies
Confidence: 70%
polarization

Creating a division between Western Europe and the rest of the world, which enhances polarization and negative perception of Europe.

artificial ‘us versus them’ division
Confidence: 65%
emotional exploitation

Using images of violence and victimhood (slaughterhouse, killing) to create an emotional response from viewers.

intense emotional impact
Confidence: 75%
Overall assessment

The video uses manipulative techniques to create a negative image of Europe and emphasizes the loss of its geopolitical significance, which can contribute to inciting distrust and panic among the audience.

Semantic analysis:

Emotional Analysis
Main topics
comparing Europe to a cow
European geopolitics
fall of the West
Emotional Analysis
Predominant tone:
negative
0

-0.7

Key emotions:

disappointment
anxiety
discontent

The second video gathered over 150 thousand views. Its content:

So the Poles bought 20% of these Korean tanks, bought these Bradleys, bought all this crap, excuse me, American, new, they dumped all the old Warsaw Pact stuff on Ukraine and now they’re buying new ones. But all these tank wedges, columns, they’re going to build something else, it all gets nullified without budget expenditures, nullified by nuclear weapons, Iskanders, Polonez, which we made, and now with Oryeshnik. That’s it, build your tank wedges however you want, we still have one missile, and you’re gone. And they’re spending this money, and we, consider, for a small sum, so to speak, knocked out all their defense program, plus they’re buying these Korean tanks. Well, okay, let’s say we imagine some military actions conditionally in Ukraine with the Russian Federation, but what is tank production? If your tank gets hit, it needs to be repaired urgently, but there’s no such nut, it’s in Korea, you need to bring production here, but they don’t bring production, they just buy. I don’t understand the logic at all.

Full video:

Analysis of disinformation narratives:

Narrative Analysis
Risk level: medium
manipulation

The video claims that Poland’s purchase of new tanks and military equipment makes no sense as they can be destroyed by a single strike from Belarus. This creates a false impression about the ineffectiveness of Polish military efforts and ignores the complexity of military operations.

selective quotation
creating false dichotomies
Confidence: 65%
polarization

The content creates a division between Russia and Poland, emphasizing that Polish efforts to strengthen their army are useless, which can intensify social disagreements.

discrediting
dehumanization
Confidence: 60%

Semantic analysis:

Emotional Analysis
Main topics
Poland’s military purchases
Criticism of military decision logic
Comparison of military power between Belarus and Poland
Emotional Analysis
Predominant tone:
negative
0

-0.5

Key emotions:

irony
pessimism
bewilderment
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