Just a few days remain until the single voting day on February 25, and we continue to analyze the election theme on Belarusian pages on Facebook.
Facebook, as a source of news and other information, ranks first among the Belarusian internet audience abroad, with 79% of respondents who stated they use social networks as a source of news and other information, and fourth in the country at 31%. It should be noted that in the country, this value has remained stable over the last three years.
Several main comparative socio-demographic characteristics from the study of media consumption by the Belarusian internet audience in the country and abroad, conducted in September-October 2023:
Of course, the charts show that the youngest audience (18-24 years) does not consider this social media as a news source, but in other age groups, the value as an information source is significant.
In January 2024, 280 posts on the election theme were collected from Belarusian pages on Facebook, which is 33% more than in December 2023.
How they were grouped by election campaigns:
Of course, the majority of the posts are about elections* – 55.4%, but unlike previous months, we have separated into individual categories posts about the Belarusian presidential elections of 2025 – 3.2% and the second significant group of posts about the presidential elections in 2020 – 9.6%. From the international perspective, only publications about the upcoming presidential elections in the Russian Federation in March (6.8%), the November elections in the USA (3.9%), and the past elections in Taiwan (3.2%) are noticeable.
With Taiwan, it is interesting that these publications, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Belarus, firmly support the “One China” principle, as was said, “We closely follow the situation unfolding around the elections in Chinese Taiwan. Any actions by third forces aimed at influencing the electoral process are unacceptable and destructive. We also categorically condemn all other attempts of external players to interfere in the internal affairs of other states.”
Posts dedicated to the elections in the Coordination Council (CC/CR) accounted for only 1.8%.
Distribution by sources of publications:
- Nasha Niva 10.4%
- Novy Chas/ Novy Čas 6.8%
- Zerkalo. News 5.7%
- Radio Svaboda 5.7%
- ONT TV Channel 5.7%
- Viasna. Human rights in Belarus 5.0%
- Pozirk – News about Belarus 4.3%
- BELTA 4.3%
- Belarusian Radio Racyja 3.9%
- Belarus 1 2.9%
As can be seen, Belarusian independent media prepared the most publications dedicated to election campaigns.
Let’s look at a few publications by Belarusian state-owned media that contained various kinds of disinformation.
On January 11, the ONT TV channel published a video featuring the ultra-right Russian politician Sergey Yervandovich Kurginyan, who, due to his propagandistic activities and calls for occupation during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, is under sanctions by all European Union countries:
Using the term “collective West” is a correct sign of manipulations and a basis for conspiracy theories.
“Collective West” is a propagandistic construct, an instrumental term needed to create an image of the enemy and an artificial generalization of all “others,” and then an artificial division into “us” and “them.” A comprehensive “enemy” gains essence through such a designation.
Also, on January 11, the ONT TV channel showed the head of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) Naryshkin, who talked about forming a “fifth column” from graduates of American exchange programs:
This is a typical “conspiracy theory” and also relies on the extensive experience of Soviet, and now Russian, repressions.
On the Belarus24 channel, the current chairman of the Belarusian CEC Karpenko explained why international organizations like the OSCE are not invited to elections*: “we conduct elections for ourselves, not for foreign countries.”
But they expect individual experts from various countries, including the European Union.
On January 31, the ONT TV channel simply started publishing threats from the Investigative Committee (IC) of the Republic of Belarus:
Analyzing this narrative for elements of disinformation, one can assume the assertion of systematic actions by fugitive criminals to involve in extremism without providing specific evidence; indicating foreign funding as the main motivator of extremist activity, which can create a false perception of the political opposition; generalizing about the readiness of all investigative units without considering the specifics of different cases of interference in the electoral process. These elements can be used to form a biased perception of the electoral process, including the elections* prepared by the current regime or justifying repressive measures.
Most publications in February 2024 on Belarusian pages on the social network Facebook will be built on the course and results of elections*. Then it will be possible to determine the set of narratives developed by Belarusian propaganda for this electoral campaign, what strategic communication constructions were used, which will be used to prepare recommendations for debunking disinformation for various target groups of the Belarusian audience.
