Warsaw and migrants: dispelling myths and misconceptions

On July 23, 2025, an interview was posted on the YouTube channel of Belarusian state media SBTV in the program “Weekdays” with media expert, deputy general director of CJSC “Belneftestrakh”, external part-time employee of the department “Economics and Logistics”, chairman of the Minsk regional organization of the Belarusian trade union of workers in chemical, mining and oil industries Dmitry Shvaiba, who said the following:

Polish society is concerned about the situation of a noticeable increase in the number of migrants in Polish cities, primarily large industrial ones, at Polish enterprises. This, you know, is like an awl, you can’t hide it in a bag here. They say that there are already 4 million migrants on the territory of Poland. This is really noticeable. Well, Warsaw is flooded, for example, with migrants, and this is already unexpected, but this is Central Asia, these are many of those regions that this same, let’s say, Western world stirred up and set in motion these migration flows. This cannot but alarm such an average Pole who is a bit of a patriot of his country, has a bit of some national component, and in general tries to understand with caution what will happen next.

This material was also posted on the Videobel.by platform and published on the SBTV portal.
Our verdict based on the conducted analyses:

Contents

1. Verdict: Incorrect
2. Text analysis from FIMI/DIMI perspective:
3. Conclusion:

Verdict: Incorrect

Reasons:

• The thesis or statement is completely false: information from several sources or opinions of several experts in a specific field contradict it.
• Cause-and-effect relationships and connections clearly do not exist as claimed.
• When quoting, essential parts are omitted, rearranged, changed, or incorrectly translated from a foreign language, resulting in a fundamental change in the meaning of what was said.
• The event occurred in essential aspects differently than stated.

Fact-checking rating scale

Full video:

Let’s conduct analysis of disinformation narratives and semantic analysis:

Let’s conduct classic fact-checking:
1. Claim: “There are already 4 million migrants on the territory of Poland.”
Official data shows that the number of foreign citizens in Poland is significantly lower. As of January 1, 2024, about 699,900 third-country nationals (1.9% of the population) and 236,000 EU citizens (0.6%) lived in the country. (migrant-integration.ec.europa.eu)
2. Claim: “Warsaw is flooded with migrants, and this is already unexpected, but this is Central Asia…”
Data shows that the largest share among foreign workers in Poland consists of Ukrainian citizens. As of the end of October 2023, 761,000 Ukrainians worked officially in the country, representing a significant portion of the total number of foreign workers. (migrant-integration.ec.europa.eu)
3. Claim: “This cannot but alarm such an average Pole who is a bit of a patriot of his country…”
This is a subjective opinion expressing a personal attitude to the situation. However, according to official data, migration flows to Poland are largely driven by economic factors such as demand for labor in various sectors. For example, in 2024, the number of foreign workers in Poland increased by 33% compared to previous years, indicating the growing dependence of the Polish economy on migrants. (migrant-integration.ec.europa.eu)
Conclusion:
The text contains distorted and exaggerated data that is emotionally charged and provocative. It does not rely on official, verified sources and shows signs of manipulation and disinformation. Facts regarding the number of migrants and the nature of migration to Poland need clarification and verification using reliable data.

Text analysis from FIMI/DIMI perspective:

1. Source — Belarusian state channel, which, as a rule, may represent the interests of the Belarusian state. Belarus and Poland have tense political relations.
   • Such text may be an example of FIMI if it is aimed at inflaming negative attitudes toward migrants within Polish society and discrediting Poland on the international stage.
   • It’s also possible that this is an example of DIMI if the goal is to influence the Polish domestic audience through a Belarusian channel (through Russian-speaking or Belarusian-speaking audiences living in Poland or close to it).
2. Disinformation and manipulation of numbers (4 million migrants vs. official data of about 2 million) — an element of manipulation to create fear and distrust, which is characteristic of both FIMI and DIMI.
3. Emotional rhetoric (“flooded”, “patriot”, “wariness”) — a typical example of a manipulative message that increases tension.
4. Reference to external causes of migration (the Western world stirred up migration flows) — an attempt to shift responsibility to a third party and form an anti-Russian-Western perception. This may be characteristic of FIMI as part of information warfare.

Conclusion:

This text contains signs of both FIMI and DIMI:

• FIMI: Since this is a foreign state channel spreading inflated and distorted information aimed at destabilizing public perception in Poland, as well as forming negative attitudes toward migration and the Western world.
• DIMI: If the audience of this channel includes an internal Polish segment, then we can also speak of domestic information interference with manipulations.

The text demonstrates a typical example of information influence, combining manipulation of facts, emotional coloring, and external political agenda.