Factcheck: Moldovan political scientist suggests possible strike on Crimea – analysis of statements and likelihood of scenario

On August 23, 2024, on the BelTA YouTube channel, Moldovan political scientist and economist Sergei Baran stated:

There are statements by quite serious Western military experts who say that in the event of a failure at Kursk, an attack on Crimea is quite likely, with a 75% probability. That the second part of this group, prepared in the West, is being pulled towards Crimea to deliver another blow. I think this will be extremely capable of what after the destruction of all this. I think that here the price for Kyiv will be even harsher. This is Kyiv, this is Odessa, Nikolaev. In principle, in order to cut off any opportunity to use the Black Sea as a threat to Russia in the Black Sea. Well, of course, no one cancels the countries, NATO members, Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey. But these countries are not as inadequate as the Kiev regime.

It is especially worth noting that this video has collected 1.8 million views.

Our verdict based on the analysis:

Verdict: Incorrect

Reasons:

• The thesis or claim is completely false: information from several sources or the opinions of several experts in a particular field contradict it.
• Cause and effect relationships and connections clearly do not exist as claimed.
• When quoting, essential parts are omitted, rearranged, changed or mistranslated from a foreign language, resulting in a fundamentally altered meaning.
• The event occurred in material respects differently than stated.

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