Propaganda Trap: How Real Numbers Are Turned into a Manipulative Tool

On February 26, 2025, a video titled “Most Lithuanians are not ready to defend their country – social survey! #lithuania #army #nato #survey #crisis” was published on the YouTube channel CTVBY. The video has gathered more than 250,000 views.

The content of this report:

Most Lithuanians are not ready to defend their country. This is according to survey data. Citizens aged 18 to 75 participated in the study. And about 90% of them positively evaluate NATO membership. However, only 52% are ready to take up arms and defend the country. The rest, it seems, hope that American soldiers will stand up for them. The survey showed that Lithuanians are almost 75% confident in their allies. Residents of the country would also support sending Lithuanian military instructors to Ukraine to train soldiers. Nevertheless, in case of a threat of hostilities, they plan to leave Lithuania in the shortest possible time.

Our verdict based on the analyses conducted:

Verdict: Incorrect

Reasons:

• When quoting, substantial parts are omitted, rearranged, changed, or incorrectly translated from a foreign language, resulting in a fundamental change in the meaning of what was said.
• The statement about a photo/video/document or research/statistics is false. For example, because the images show something other than what is claimed, or the research/statistics were misinterpreted.
• The event occurred in substantially different aspects than claimed.

Fact-checking rating scale

Full video:

Official press release from the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Lithuania dated February 23, 2025, which describes a public opinion poll conducted by Spinter tyrimų in December 2024.

The CTVBY video claims that “only 52% are ready to take up arms.” However, this is an incorrect presentation of information, as these 52% represent a majority among the adult population that could potentially participate in defense. Additionally, 61% declared readiness for non-violent resistance. This indicates a high level of civic responsibility and does not mean refusal to defend the country.

Further, the video authors make a dubious assumption: “the rest, it seems, hope that American soldiers will stand up for them.” However, the survey itself does not contain such wording. The data show that 75% of Lithuanians are confident in the support of NATO allies, but this does not mean that they shift all responsibility for the country’s defense to other states.

Another claim from the video: “in case of a threat of hostilities, they plan to leave Lithuania in the shortest possible time.” However, there is no such data in the survey. This phrase creates a false impression of panic among the population, although the survey shows a high degree of threat awareness.

It is important to note that residents of Lithuania understand well the risks of hybrid and information attacks. As stated in the Ministry of Defense report:

“The people of Lithuania are well aware of and have a realistic view about the challenges posed by hybrid, cyber and information threats.”

The figures confirm this: 76% believe that Russia is conducting hybrid attacks against Lithuania, 78% are confident that Russia deliberately manipulates information, and 71% claim they can identify disinformation. Half of the population is confident they can handle cybersecurity incidents, and 56% check the security of websites before entering personal data.

Thus, the original research data was used in the video to create a narrative about Lithuania’s weakness, which is a common disinformation tactic. The real figures indicate a high level of citizen awareness, trust in allies, and readiness for defense, which directly contradicts the propagandistic interpretation.

Now we will perform an analysis of disinformation narratives and semantic analysis: