Fact Check: Statements by the Prime Ministers of Slovakia and Hungary on the Threat of World War III Due to Ukraine's Entry into NATO

Factcheck

On July 12, 2024, the Belarusian state television channel ATN aired a piece with a threatening headline: “Ukraine’s NATO Membership Will Mark the Beginning of World War III – Fico #warinukraine #nato.”
The content of the report:

Slovak Prime Minister Fico stated that Ukraine’s accession to NATO would mark the beginning of World War III. The head of the Slovak government recently returned to work after recovering from a serious injury. He was shot four times during an assassination attempt, which kept him in a hospital bed for nearly two months. Fico’s views on Ukraine’s NATO membership are shared by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Orbán declared that the North Atlantic Alliance is rapidly losing its function as a defensive alliance. For this reason, Budapest refuses to participate in the bloc’s mission in Ukraine. Hungary believes that its security depends on the situation in neighboring regions and does not wish to become embroiled in a larger war.

Our verdict based on the conducted analyses:

Verdict: Lack of context

Reasons:

  • Facts or figures may be accurate, but they are improperly generalized or disseminated without the necessary context, leading to misunderstandings and false conclusions.
  • A correct quote taken out of context can therefore be misunderstood. For instance, this may happen because the meaning of the entire conversation, the classification of the person themselves, or the explanatory sentences that preceded or followed the quote have been omitted.


Rating scale for evaluation

“Full video:”Let’s conduct an analysis of disinformation narratives and a semantic analysis.

Analysis of Narratives
Risk level: high
threat to global security

The statement that Ukraine’s accession to NATO will lead to the onset of World War III creates an image of a threat to global security and destabilization.

apocalyptic forecast
“Using authority”
“Creating Fear”
Confidence: 85%
division of opinions

The mention of Hungarian Prime Minister Orban’s support for Fico’s views highlights the existing division among European leaders regarding NATO and Ukraine.

“Links to authorities”
“Creation of alliances”
Confidence: 75%
national security

The mention of Hungary’s refusal to participate in the NATO mission in Ukraine highlights national interests and security.

“Appeal to national interests”
“Using Fear”
Confidence: 70%
Overall assessment

The video contains manipulative elements aimed at creating fear and division of opinions regarding NATO and Ukraine, which may contribute to misinformation and tension in public perception.

Emotional analysis
Main themes
The position of Slovakia and Hungary
Ukraine’s accession to NATO
the threat of a third world war
Emotional analysis
Dominant tone:
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Key emotions:

“Anxiety”
“Fear”
“Uncertainty”
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