From frostbite to disinformation: how Estonian army exercises became the target of IPSO

# Translation to English, preserving HTML markup:

On February 10, 2025, a video was published on the YouTube channel CTVBY with the headline “Estonian Military Suffered Severe Frostbite During Exercises!”. It gathered more than 1.2 million views.

Content:

In Estonia, large-scale self-defense force exercises were prematurely ended due to cold weather. According to the maneuver scenario, military personnel were supposed to repel an attack by a simulated enemy and go on a counteroffensive. However, it failed almost as soon as it began. The Estonian army soldiers encountered a river, which they were unable to cross. During the crossing, several military personnel suffered severe frostbite and were forced to return to shore. As it turned out, the combat readiness of the armed forces was undermined by the elementary lack of necessary equipment. In particular, waterproof packaging for spare uniforms.

Our verdict based on the analyses conducted:

Verdict: Mostly Incorrect

Reasons:

• If several statements were made, most of them are false.
• Minor aspects may be correct or unsubstantiated, but they do not affect the incorrect main thesis.
• The statement may contradict a true fact or event but is still clearly false.

Fact-checking rating scale

Full video:

1. What actually happened?
   According to data from Postimees, during a winter field camp, several servicemen from Jõhvi received minor frostbite while crossing a river. The soldiers were given assistance, brought to the military base for warming and examination. The exercises continued, and the Estonian Defense Forces drew conclusions about the need to improve equipment.

2. How did the narrative change in the disinformation?
   The distorted video claims that the entire operation failed, and the army was unprepared for winter conditions. Isolated cases of frostbite were inflated to a large-scale problem, and the lack of waterproof packaging for clothing was presented as a sign of “catastrophic unpreparedness” of Estonian military.

3. Purpose of information distortion
   Such manipulations not only exaggerate a real event but form a narrative about the “weakness” of NATO countries’ armed forces. Such psychological operations aim to undermine trust in the army, demoralize military personnel, and reduce confidence in the defense capabilities of the Baltic states.

Now let’s perform an analysis of disinformation narratives and semantic analysis: