In the run-up to the first round of presidential elections in Poland, scheduled for May 18, 2025, we conducted a detailed analysis of content from Belarusian state YouTube channels for the period April 21-27, 2025. The research revealed the presence of a coordinated disinformation campaign aimed at undermining trust in the electoral process, discrediting candidates, and creating an atmosphere of political instability in Poland.
This material presents a comprehensive analysis of the identified narratives, manipulation methods, and goals of this campaign, as well as fact-checking of the main disinformation claims.
Research Methodology
For the analysis, transcripts of video materials from Belarusian state YouTube channels that mentioned Poland in the context of the upcoming elections were selected and studied in detail. Each material was analyzed according to the following parameters:
- Main disinformation narratives
- Manipulative techniques used
- Target audience
- Potential impact on the electoral process
The article presents the results of fact-checking key claims, as well as an analysis of signs of coordinated foreign information manipulation (FIMI).
Main Disinformation Narratives
1. “Absence of real choice for Polish voters”
Examples of disinformation:
“There are, of course, significantly more candidates than secret packages in the morning studio of the Polish TV channel. But the essence of the process is presented as accurately as possible. Because none of them even intends to pursue an independent policy in the interests of the Polish people.” (“Poland before elections: Why have Poles lost faith in politicians?”, NEWS.BY: news of Belarus and the world 21.04.2025)
“Why, in your opinion, has a situation developed in which ordinary Poles found themselves in a situation of choice without choice? Because all candidates for the presidency today are blowing the same horn and there is no real struggle of political programs.” (“Poland before elections: Why have Poles lost faith in politicians?”, NEWS.BY: news of Belarus and the world 21.04.2025)
Fact-checking:
- Analysis of the programs of the main candidates (Rafał Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki) shows significant differences on key issues, including:
- Relations with the EU and the US
- Social policy
- Approach to the judicial system and the rule of law
- Economic policy
- Polls by the Polish Center for Public Opinion Research (CBOS) show that the majority of voters (more than 70%) see significant differences between candidates and plan to participate in voting.
Goal of disinformation: Reducing voter turnout by creating a sense of meaninglessness of elections.
2. “External control of Polish politicians”
Examples of disinformation:
“In the current race, there are two main favorites. Rafał Trzaskowski from the Civic Platform and Karol Nawrocki from the Law and Justice party… Everyone openly calls the nominal Donald Tusk a German protégé… The situation is roughly the same with other politicians. Another state somehow stands behind each of them.” (“Poland before elections: Why have Poles lost faith in politicians?”, NEWS.BY: news of Belarus and the world 21.04.2025)
“Rafał Trzaskowski is oriented toward American liberals, Soros and the Democrats stand behind him. Karol Nawrocki represents the right and, accordingly, seeks to gain the support of the Republicans and, preferably, Donald Trump personally.” (“Psychosis in Poland! Zelensky was rude to Trump and the US is abandoning Ukraine!”, SBTV 25.04.2025)
Fact-checking:
- Although Polish political parties do have different foreign policy orientations, there is no credible evidence of “external control” of candidates.
- International connections and alliances are a normal part of modern politics and diplomacy.
- Major decisions in Poland are made in accordance with national legislation and the constitution, not under external dictates.
Goal of disinformation: Undermining Poland’s sovereignty and the legitimacy of the electoral process, presenting the country as a non-independent actor.
3. “Criminalization of candidates”
Examples of disinformation:
“Well, the fact that Nawrocki has had some problems, that he has connections with the mafia of the so-called Tricity, Trójmiasto in Polish, that’s Gdańsk, Sopot, Gdynia. Well, there is a connection. He said he only took pictures of himself with these gangsters, and there were no connections beyond that.” (“WEEKDAYS 22.04.2025. FULL VERSION. Belyaev: dissatisfaction with Ukrainian refugees is growing in Poland”, SBTV 22.04.2025)
Fact-checking:
- There are no official accusations, court decisions, or credible journalistic investigations confirming Karol Nawrocki’s ties to organized crime.
- The claims are based on unverified rumors and manipulations with the context of individual photographs.
Goal of disinformation: Discrediting a specific candidate and undermining trust in the political system as a whole.
4. “Possible falsification of election results”
Examples of disinformation:
“Despite the fact that Rafał Trzaskowski is ahead by about 10% in all polls, PiS has very serious chances of regaining real power in Poland. Moreover, they have foresightfully formed their own chamber in the Supreme Court, where they have placed loyal judges. They are the ones who, according to the Constitution, must approve the election results.” (“Psychosis in Poland! Zelensky was rude to Trump and the US is abandoning Ukraine!”, SBTV 25.04.2025)
“But such agreements are already taking place between Brussels and Tusk to simply say that we will hold elections again, as was done in Georgia.” (“WEEKDAYS 22.04.2025. FULL VERSION. Belyaev: dissatisfaction with Ukrainian refugees is growing in Poland”, SBTV 22.04.2025)
Fact-checking:
- Poland has a multi-level election monitoring system, including representatives of all parties, independent observers, and international missions.
- The Supreme Court of Poland can reject election results only if there are serious, documented violations, not based on the political preferences of judges.
- There is no reliable information about any “agreements” between Prime Minister Tusk and Brussels regarding repeat elections.
Goal of disinformation: Creating grounds for further challenging the legitimacy of the elections and destabilizing the political situation after the vote.
5. “Mass dissatisfaction with both main political leaders”
Examples of disinformation:
“Poles are tired of their authorities, according to a survey conducted by the National Institute for Social Research. As it turned out, the majority of the country’s residents want the leaders of the largest parties, who have shaped Warsaw’s policy for many years, to resign. Thus, almost half of the respondents, namely 47%, are convinced that the current prime minister of the country, Donald Tusk, must leave his post and no longer participate in the political struggle. His main rival, the leader of the opposition Law and Justice party, Jarosław Kaczyński, also got his share. 60% of Poles are convinced that he should retire.” (“Poles want to send Tusk and Kaczyński into retirement!”, CTVBY 23.04.2025)
Fact-checking:
- The “National Institute for Social Research” with the indicated data cannot be found in reliable sources.
- Official trust ratings (CBOS, April 2025) show a more complex picture of support for politicians, with significant differences between the electorates of different parties.
- Critical attitudes toward incumbent politicians are the norm in democratic societies and do not indicate a crisis in the political system.
Goal of disinformation: Creating a sense of universal disappointment in the political system and increasing political apathy.
Manipulative Techniques Used in the Disinformation Campaign
1. Emotional exploitation
- Using stories about the hardships of ordinary citizens
“I think not everyone can afford to set a good, rich table. You know, I feel terribly sorry for the pensioners because I’ve been trading here for many years and I see this. They are disappointed and scared.” (“Poland before elections: Why have Poles lost faith in politicians?”, NEWS.BY: news of Belarus and the world 21.04.2025)
- Appeal to nostalgia and the past
“My dear, I have lived many years, but even under the communists it was much better than now.” (“Poland before elections: Why have Poles lost faith in politicians?”, NEWS.BY: news of Belarus and the world 21.04.2025)
- Creating an atmosphere of fear and uncertainty
“They are purposefully preparing children from childhood for the inevitability of war. We must learn to kill.” (“Military psychosis in Poland. Tomasz Schmidt on falling incomes, military training, and intimidation of the population”, SBTV 27.04.2025)
2. Polarization
- Contrasting “the people” and “the authorities”
“Polish politicians, as we can see, are oriented not toward citizens and their interests, but toward external factors.” (“Poland before elections: Why have Poles lost faith in politicians?”, NEWS.BY: news of Belarus and the world 21.04.2025)
- Inciting conflict between Poles and Ukrainians
“Dissatisfaction with Ukrainian refugees, of whom there are already more than one and a half million in the country, is growing in Polish society. Thus, Poles are convinced that Ukrainians live much better than they do.” (“Poles are dissatisfied with Ukrainians!”, CTVBY 22.04.2025)
- Artificial division of forces into “pro-American” and “pro-European”
“Rafał Trzaskowski is oriented toward American liberals… Karol Nawrocki represents the right and, accordingly, seeks to gain the support of the Republicans.” (“Psychosis in Poland! Zelensky was rude to Trump and the US is abandoning Ukraine!”, SBTV 25.04.2025)
3. Distortion of facts
- Selective quoting Using individual negative statements by citizens as confirmation of a supposedly general opinion.
- Exaggerations
“And I would highlight a second point. Well, it’s hard not to notice that this is happening on the eve of May 9. Again, that is, this could be some kind of act of intimidation.” (“Psychosis in Poland! Zelensky was rude to Trump and the US is abandoning Ukraine!”, SBTV 25.04.2025)
Using isolated incidents to create an image of a systemic phenomenon.
- Presenting opinions as facts
“I think that, of course, the external factor will influence, because in Poland the interests of Germany, Great Britain, and the United States have always intersected and have never been left aside.” (“Poland before elections: Why have Poles lost faith in politicians?”, NEWS.BY: news of Belarus and the world 21.04.2025)
4. Fabrications
- Creating “polls” and “research” References to non-existent or unverifiable research institutes and their data.
- Inventing conspiratorial scenarios
“But such agreements are already taking place between Brussels and Tusk to simply say that we will hold elections again.”
- Outright fabrications
“150 thousand Pakistanis on elephants are going to storm the Polish border.” (“Psychosis in Poland! Zelensky was rude to Trump and the US is abandoning Ukraine!”, SBTV 25.04.2025)
Even the authors themselves admit this is fake, but use it for further manipulations.
Signs of a Coordinated Campaign
1. Time synchronization
All analyzed materials were published within one week (April 21-27, 2025), three weeks before the first round of presidential elections in Poland.
2. Uniformity of narratives
The same theses are repeated on different channels and in different formats:
- Meaninglessness of elections
- External control of candidates
- Possible falsification of results
- Universal disappointment in the political system
3. Cross-references and self-citation
Authors of different programs refer to each other, creating the illusion of confirming information from different sources.
4. Use of the same experts and commentators
The same “experts” appear in several videos, expressing similar opinions in different contexts.
5. Coordination with social media
The video materials mention “hysteria in social networks” and disinformation campaigns that are supposedly spread synchronously with the release of the analyzed videos.
Goals of the Disinformation Campaign
1. Reducing voter turnout
By creating a sense of meaninglessness of elections and the absence of real choice, the campaign aims to reduce citizen participation in voting, which can distort election results.
2. Undermining the legitimacy of the future president
Regardless of who wins the election, the ground is being prepared in advance for challenging the legitimacy of their election through:
- Accusations of “external control”
- Hints at possible falsifications
- Discrediting candidates
3. Destabilizing the political situation in Poland
Escalating tension and creating expectations of a crisis after the elections can contribute to political destabilization and public unrest.
4. Undermining Poland’s relations with partners
Emphasizing allegedly existing contradictions between Poland and:
- Ukraine (through the narrative of conflict with refugees)
- The EU (through the narrative of Brussels’ dictates)
- The US (through the narrative of dependence on American policy)
5. Distracting the Belarusian audience
Creating an image of an unstable, economically problematic, and non-independent Poland can serve as a tool to distract the Belarusian audience from internal problems.
The analysis clearly indicates the presence of a coordinated disinformation campaign directed against the presidential elections in Poland. The purpose of this campaign is to undermine trust in the democratic process, reduce voter turnout, and create preconditions for political destabilization after the elections.
It is important to note that such campaigns are part of a broader strategy to destabilize democratic processes in the region and require comprehensive countermeasures from civil society, media, and state institutions.
Participation in elections and a critical attitude toward received information remain key tools for protection against information manipulations and preservation of democratic principles.
