Belarusian Civil Society and Disinformation, January 2025

Monitorings

Distribution of “Civil Society” Topic Mentions in January 2025

Data was collected using tools provided by Oxylabs as part of Project 4β.
Distribution of sources by frequency of mentions:

For analysis of disinformation narratives, publications in the following media outlets were selected: 1prof.by, belta.by, minsk.gov.by, minsknews.by, ont.by, pravo.by, sb.by, zviazda.by.
Let’s select those with the highest risk level of “disinformation narratives”.
Let’s begin with the so-called “election campaign.”
Deputy of the House of Representatives of the National Assembly of Belarus Vadim Gigin, during the talk show “Elections-2025” on ONT, spoke about the external factor that no longer affects elections in our country.

He said the following, touching on the issue of “civil society”:

Vadim Gigin: “It is customary for the West to somehow influence elections in an Eastern European country. But look at what we have done over these four years. In general, we have gone through a very large stage. The All-Belarusian People’s Assembly in February 2021 adopted a resolution, which essentially outlined the program for the political development of our country for these four years. What colossal work have we done? This is the discussion and adoption of the new version of the Constitution. The Law on Civil Society. Here stand the deputies, everyone took part in this. The Law on Political Parties, re-registration of political parties. Elections, Single Voting Day almost a year ago. Formation of the deputy corps. Convocation of the All-Belarusian People’s Assembly already in constitutional status. And now the presidential elections. We have built a system of protection against external influences. These are the first elections when external forces had no chance to influence.”

Narrative Analysis
Risk level: high
anti-elitism

The deputy claims that external forces, especially the West, are trying to interfere in elections, which emphasizes the independence of Belarus and its political system.

emotional provocation
distortion of facts
substitution of concepts
Confidence: 85%
global conspiracy

The assertion that international observers have hidden goals aimed at overthrowing the government in Belarus creates an image of a threat from the West.

rhetorical questions
dehumanization
Confidence: 80%
inciting distrust

Statements that elections can take place without ‘undesirable’ candidates emphasize distrust of international institutions and observers.

distorted quotes
unverified data
Confidence: 75%
Overall assessment

The deputy’s speech contains many manipulative techniques aimed at creating an image of a threat from the West and strengthening the internal legitimacy of the government. This can undermine trust in international institutions and increase polarization in society.

A publication with the headline draws attention: The “Our Children” campaign united the state and civil society in caring for young Belarusians — opinion

Which organizations are considered part of civil society?

In addition to representatives of state administration bodies and state organizations, public associations also actively join the campaign annually: the Belarusian Children’s Fund, BRSM, BRPO, the Belarusian Women’s Union, FPB and “Belaya Rus,” as well as business.

Such organizations have a specific, unambiguous term – GONGO.

Narrative Analysis
Risk level: medium
social responsibility

The “Our Children” campaign emphasizes the unity of the state and society in caring for children, especially the most vulnerable groups.

emotional provocation
substitution of concepts
Confidence: 85%
state support

The active participation of state bodies and organizations in charity is emphasized, creating an image of a caring state.

distortion of facts
rhetorical questions
Confidence: 75%
collective mobilization

The campaign demonstrates the unification of various segments of society, including business and public associations, to achieve a common goal.

emotional coloring
support for metanarrative
Confidence: 70%
Overall assessment

The article creates a positive image of the charity campaign, but may use manipulative techniques to enhance the perception of state care for children.

A new narrative was proposed by the state think-tank BISI:

The results of resetting the system of civil society institutions have led to strengthening the role of political parties in the electoral process, and have had a positive impact on expanding political literacy and civic activity of the population.

Of particular concern are the statements of the chairman of the Belarusian Union of Journalists Andrei Krivosheev, in which the same set of “civil society” organizations is repeated

Andrei Krivosheev: “Belarusians and Belarus have already won in these elections. Why? Because we are holding these elections according to our national legislation, without looking back at some ODIHR and other cumbersome abbreviations. We ourselves created this legislation, we ourselves updated the Constitution, our basic law. Further, we have a completely national, patriotic, political picture of all flanks. We have our patriotic left, we have our patriotic centrists – “Belaya Rus,” we have our patriotic right of Oleg Sergeevich Gaidukevich. We finally have a civil society that demonstrates its maturity and the highest political culture, which works not as centers of “Soroslings” who were given money. Those ran to the streets to organize riots. But this is our civil society. Belarusian Union of Women, Belarusian Union of Journalists, our BRSM, our patriotic center from “Belaya Rus”… Thanks to all this, we have already won! The issue that will be decided on the 26th is to protect our victory.”

Narrative Analysis
Risk level: high
anti-elitism

The assertion that Belarusians have already won in the elections emphasizes independence from international observers and elites, creating an image of a self-sufficient nation.

emotional provocation
substitution of concepts
Confidence: 85%
dehumanization

The contrast between ‘our’ civil society and ‘Soroslings’ creates a negative image of the opposition and strengthens support for the government.

distortion of facts
rhetorical questions
Confidence: 80%
global conspiracy

References to ‘cumbersome abbreviations’ and ‘Soros centers’ hint at the presence of external enemies, which strengthens internal cohesion.

fear
false conclusions
Confidence: 75%
Overall assessment

The article uses manipulative techniques to create an image of victory and unity, which can undermine trust in international institutions and intensify internal conflicts.

Conclusion
Analysis of Belarus’s information space in January 2025 shows systematic use of disinformation narratives in state media. The collected data (1,186 messages from 74 sources) demonstrate that the topic of civil society is actively exploited to promote certain political goals.
High-risk narratives include anti-elitism, “global conspiracy,” and inciting distrust in international institutions. The rhetoric of officials, including deputy Vadim Gigin and chairman of the Belarusian Union of Journalists Andrei Krivosheev, is aimed at creating an image of Belarus as a country that has “defeated external influence.”
A special role is played by the artificial division of civil society into “correct” (pro-government organizations — BRSM, BRPO, FPB, “Belaya Rus”) and “incorrect” (independent organizations, disparagingly called “Soros centers”). Even coverage of the “Our Children” charity campaign is used to strengthen the image of unity between the state and loyal civil society.
The manipulative techniques used — emotional provocation, distortion of facts, substitution of concepts, dehumanization of opponents — are aimed at undermining trust in international institutions and increasing internal polarization of society. As a result, a distorted view of Belarusian civil society is created, which hinders genuine civic dialogue and the development of democratic institutions.

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