Disinformation about the collapse of the economies of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia: what's wrong with these claims?

On January 9, 2025, a segment titled “A Wave of Bankruptcies Expected in the Baltic States” was released on the YouTube channel ONT. The segment garnered over 100,000 views and discussed the following:

Baltic enterprises are facing a wave of bankruptcies. In the coming year, analysts cite high prices for raw materials, energy, and logistics as the main reasons. All of this significantly impacts the cost of production. Consequently, there is a decline in demand and a decrease in exports. For instance, in Latvia, the transit sector, one of the pillars of the economy, continues to lose ground. Sanctions against Russia and the redirection of cargo flows to other routes are leading to a reduction in transportation. In Lithuania, there are issues with the real estate market. Rising interest rates have resulted in a decrease in the number of transactions. In Estonia, startups and IT companies are facing a shortage of investments.

Our verdict based on the conducted analyses:

Verdict: Mostly incorrect.

Reasons:

  • If several statements were made, most of them are false.
  • Minor aspects may be correct or unfounded, but they do not affect the incorrect main thesis.
  • A statement may contradict a true fact or event, yet still be clearly false.


Rating scale for evaluation

“Full video:”The growth of GDP per capita, according toThe word “данным” translates to “data” or “given” in English, depending on the context. If you provide more context or a complete sentence, I can give a more accurate translation.The World Bank shows that the economies of the Baltic countries are growing, in contrast to stagnation.

Current data on the following areas:

1. Transit in Latvia

In 2023, the volume of railway freight transport in Latvia decreased by 27.6% compared to 2022, totaling 15.636 million tons. For the first nine months of 2024, the volume of transport amounted to 11.591 million tons, which is 4.6% less than in the same period of the previous year.

However, despite the overall decline, some small ports, such as Salacgrīva, have shown significant growth in cargo handling. The port manager, Ivo Istenais, noted a 42% increase in throughput compared to the previous year, which is attributed to a rise in orders from Scandinavia, Germany, and Poland.

It seems like your message is incomplete. Could you please provide the text you would like me to translate?The number of real estate transactions in Lithuania.

In 2024, the Lithuanian real estate market showed uneven dynamics. In January, the lowest number of transactions in recent years was recorded, with around 1,500 apartments sold.

However, by November, the situation had changed: the number of real estate transactions had significantly increased, surpassing the figures from the previous year. The registry center noted that the market was extremely active, and the number of concluded deals improved upon last year’s results.

It seems that your message is incomplete. Could you please provide the full text you would like me to translate?“Investments in Estonian IT companies and startups”

Estonia continues to strengthen its position as a leading startup hub in Europe. In 2024, the country became the leader among European nations in the number of successful startups.

According to data from Startup Estonia, the largest sector for Estonian startups is software development and business services, which includes 251 companies. In second place is fintech, with 196 startups.

In addition, venture funds such as Superangel, Karma Ventures, and Tera Ventures are actively operating in Estonia, investing up to 3 million euros per company in technology startups, which contributes to the development of the country’s IT sector.
Analysis of Narratives
Risk level: medium
economic instability

The statement about the impending wave of bankruptcies in the Baltic countries, triggered by high raw material and energy prices, as well as sanctions against Russia.

distortion of facts
“Emotional provocation”
Confidence: 75%
external threats

The reference to sanctions against Russia as the main reason for the economic problems in the Baltic countries.

substitution of concepts
“Anti-elitism”
Confidence: 70%
“Dehumanization”

It is implied that economic problems are linked to external factors, which may lead to a negative perception of certain groups.

“Incitement of distrust”
“Fear”
Confidence: 65%
Overall assessment

The video raises important economic issues; however, it employs manipulative techniques that may distort the perception of the actual situation in the Baltic countries.

Emotional analysis
Main themes
economic problems
“Bankruptcies in the Baltic States”
The impact of sanctions on the economy.
Emotional analysis
Dominant tone:
It seems like you provided a single word, “negative.” Could you please provide more context or a specific text that you would like me to translate?
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Key emotions:

“Despair”
“Alarm”
“Uncertainty”
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