Factcheck: Why is a Belarusian political scientist talking about the nuclear threat to the Baltic states instead of their defensive capabilities?

Candidate of Historical Sciences Alexey Belyaev, Dean of the Faculty of Journalism at Belarusian State University, stated the following on SBT TV on July 30, 2024:

If a military conflict were to suddenly arise—emphasizing “if”—then Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia would be countries where resistance would be suppressed within a day, maybe two. In reality, no defensive fortifications would be of any help. Moreover, considering modern warfare, what kind of war are they preparing for? It resembles the ongoing combat operations in Ukraine. However, we must understand that if the threat of military conflict emerges, Lithuania, being a NATO member, would mean only one type of conflict: a nuclear one, where no “dragon’s teeth” would be of any use, where nuclear bombs and missiles would be flying, and where all conventional weaponry would ultimately prove useless.

Our verdict based on the conducted analyses is:

Verdict: Mostly incorrect.

Reasons:

• If several statements were made, most of them are false.
• Minor aspects may be correct or unfounded, but they do not affect the incorrect main thesis.
• A statement may contradict a true fact or event, yet still be clearly false.

Rating scale for evaluation

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